Direct answer: Wheat prices are driven mainly by growing weather in the major exporting regions, export competition from the Black Sea, the U.S. dollar, and the supply-and-demand balance set out in USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis are three different wheat contracts, so they do not always move together. For Prairie spring wheat, Minneapolis hard red spring is the closest U.S. futures reference; basis and the Canadian dollar still sit between that close and a local cash bid.
Three boards, three classes of wheat
The Daily Board prints all three U.S. wheat futures because they are not substitutes:
Chicago soft red winter (SRW, ZW): a lower-protein soft wheat and a widely watched world benchmark. Contract specs are published by CME Group
Kansas City hard red winter (HRW, KE): a higher-protein milling wheat grown on the U.S. southern and central Plains. See CME KC HRW specs.
Minneapolis hard red spring (HRS, MW): the closest U.S. futures for Canadian western red spring. See CME spring wheat specs.
Protein premiums, class differences and regional weather explain why one board can rally while another is flat. The Daily Board explains the three contracts in Why Are There Three Wheat Futures? and The Three Wheat Boards.
Weather and the crop calendar
Wheat is grown in many climates, so weather markets can arrive in different seasons:
Winter wheat: U.S. Plains and Black Sea stand conditions through winter and spring, then harvest weather in early summer.
Spring wheat: planting and growing weather on the northern Plains and the Canadian Prairies, with heat or dryness in June and July often mattering most.
Southern Hemisphere: Australian and Argentine crops compete for the same export buyers later in the calendar, so their weather can move the boards after the North American harvest.
A weather scare in one region supports prices only while the market still thinks it will shrink exportable supply. Rain at the right time can take that premium out quickly.
Black Sea exports and global trade
Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, so shipping, crop size and trade policy around the Black Sea regularly show up in the Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis closes. USDA tracks country-level supply and use in the WASDE and in the Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) database. When Black Sea supplies look large and unimpeded, export competition usually weighs on U.S. and Canadian wheat; disruptions or a smaller crop work the other way.
The WASDE, other reports and the dollar
The monthly WASDE resets the U.S. and world wheat balance sheet: production, use, trade and ending stocks. A larger-than-expected carryout typically weighs on prices; a tighter one supports them. Weekly U.S. export sales and USDA crop reports fill in the weeks between WASDE releases. The Daily Board's primer is What Is the WASDE Report?.
For Canadian production and supplies, Statistics Canada crop reports and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's principal field crops outlook are the official domestic sources.
Most international wheat trade is priced in U.S. dollars. A stronger dollar makes U.S. and (through the exchange rate) Canadian wheat more expensive for many foreign buyers and can cap a rally; a weaker dollar does the opposite. Fund positioning, reported in the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report, can amplify a move once it is underway.
Cash bids, basis and the loonie
A Prairie elevator bid is not the futures close. It is the relevant futures month plus or minus basis, and protein or grade premiums still apply. Harvest deliveries often weaken nearby basis for a stretch. Because Canadian cash is in Canadian dollars, a move in the loonie can change the local bid even when Minneapolis is little changed. See How Does the Canadian Dollar Affect Canola and Grain Prices?.
Frequently asked questions
Why are there three wheat futures prices?
Because they are three different wheat classes on three exchanges: Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS. They often trend together, but protein, regional weather and export demand can pull one board away from the others.
Which wheat board matters most for Prairie wheat?
Minneapolis hard red spring is the closest U.S. futures for Canadian western red spring. Chicago SRW still sets a lot of the world tone, but it is a different class of wheat.
What is the WASDE report's role in wheat?
USDA's monthly WASDE is the main official reset of U.S. and world wheat supply, use and ending stocks. A surprise in those numbers can move all three boards on the day it is released.
Why can Minneapolis move when Chicago does not?
Spring wheat has its own crop, protein market and Prairie/northern Plains weather. A tight protein or HRS supply can lift Minneapolis even if soft wheat supplies look ample.
See also Wheat Futures Today, CBOT Wheat Futures Explained, and Grain Prices Today.
