Direct answer: The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) is the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly forecast of how much of each major crop will be produced, used and left over, for the U.S. and the world. It comes out once a month at 11:00 a.m. Central. It moves grain prices because the market trades the gap between USDA's numbers and what the trade expected, and the headline gap is usually in ending stocks.
What the WASDE is
The report is compiled by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, pulling in work from several USDA agencies. U.S. acreage, yield and production numbers come from surveys run by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
It covers wheat, rice, coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, oats), oilseeds and cotton, with additional tables on sugar and livestock products. For each crop it lays out a balance sheet: what is in the bin at the start of the marketing year, what gets grown or imported, what gets used or exported, and what is left at the end.
That last line, ending stocks (also called carryout or carryover), is the number the trade watches most closely. It is the market's best single read on how tight or loose a crop is.
When it comes out
The WASDE is released monthly, usually between the 8th and 12th calendar day, at 11:00 a.m. Central Time (12:00 p.m. Eastern). That is 11:00 a.m. in Saskatchewan as well, since the province stays on Central Standard Time year-round. USDA posts the full year's release dates in advance.
Some months carry extra weight. Reports during the U.S. growing season and harvest update yield estimates, and those can shift the balance sheet more than a quiet winter report that mostly tweaks demand.
Why it moves prices
Before every WASDE, analysts and wire services survey the trade and publish an average estimate for the key numbers, especially U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat. By release day, that average is largely priced in.
So the market does not react to the number itself. It reacts to the surprise:
U.S. ending stocks come in below the trade guess: the crop looks tighter than expected, and prices tend to rally.
Ending stocks come in above the guess: the crop looks looser, and prices tend to fall.
The number lands on the guess: the reaction is often muted, and the market goes back to watching weather and exports.
Because the release lands in the middle of the trading session, the move can be fast. A day when corn swings several percent with no weather news is often a WASDE day.
Why it matters on the Prairies
Most WASDE headlines are about U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat, but the read-through to a Prairie farm is real.
Wheat: the WASDE's U.S. and world wheat balance sheets move all three U.S. wheat boards, including Minneapolis spring wheat, the closest futures reference for Prairie hard red spring.
Canola: ICE canola prices Prairie canola in Canadian dollars, and the WASDE does not set it directly, but it trades in the shadow of soybeans and soybean oil. A bearish soy surprise often drags canola in the same session.
Feed grains: a big shift in the U.S. corn balance sheet changes what imported corn costs Prairie feedlots, which feeds through to feed barley bids.
The Daily Board flags WASDE days in the "Watch" lines ahead of time and, on the day, ties the move back to the balance sheet change that caused it.
What the WASDE is not
It is a forecast, not a count. USDA revises its numbers month to month as more survey data, harvest results and export figures come in. A number that moves the market today can be revised away three months later.
It is also not a Canadian report. Canadian supply and demand estimates come from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Statistics Canada, on their own schedules.
Frequently asked questions
What does WASDE stand for?
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. It is USDA's monthly forecast of supply, use and ending stocks for grains, oilseeds, cotton and other commodities, for the U.S. and the world.
When is the WASDE released?
Once a month, usually between the 8th and 12th of the month, at 11:00 a.m. Central (noon Eastern). USDA publishes the exact dates for the year in advance.
Why does the WASDE move prices so much?
Because the market trades the gap between what USDA prints and what the trade expected. A U.S. ending stocks number well above or below the average analyst guess can move corn, soybeans or wheat sharply within minutes of the release.
Does the WASDE matter for canola?
Indirectly. ICE canola prices Prairie canola in Canadian dollars, and the WASDE is not its main supply report, but canola trades alongside soybeans and soybean oil, and the WASDE's world oilseed numbers feed into the vegetable oil complex. A big soy surprise often spills into canola the same session.
See also the corn futures guide, the soybean futures guide, and the commodity market glossary.
