Crude Jumps 2% on Renewed Hormuz Tanker Attacks | October 12, 2026

🌽 Corn · Dec — 483 · +3¼ · +0.68% 🟢⬆️

🫘 Beans · Nov — 1287¾ · −4¼ · −0.33% 🔴⬇️

🥣 Meal · Dec — 368.70 · +3.10 · +0.85% 🟢⬆️

🛢️ Oil · Dec — 68.63 · +0.61 · +0.90% 🟢⬆️

🌾 SRW · Dec — 672¼ · +1¼ · +0.19% 🟢⬆️

🌿 HRW · Dec — 715¼ · −4 · −0.56% 🔴⬇️

🌱 HRS · Dec — 696¼ · +1 · +0.14% 🟢⬆️

🥣 Oats · Dec — 410¼ · −10½ · −2.50% 🔴⬇️

🌻 Canola · Nov — C$816.70 · +0.80 · +0.10% 🟢⬆️ (Friday's close, carried)

🐮 Barley · cash — ~C$293/t · unch (carried) · — ➖

🛢️ WTI · Nov — 93.74 · +1.89 · +2.06% 🟢⬆️

🔥 NatGas · Nov — 3.167 · −0.053 · −1.65% 🔴⬇️

🥇 Gold · Dec — 4,190.60 · −25.70 · −0.61% 🔴⬇️

🥈 Silver · Dec — 60.513 · −0.535 · −0.88% 🔴⬇️

Strait of Hormuz tensions are back to the boil: merchant ships carrying crew were attacked over the weekend, two seafarers are reported missing, and tanker transits through the strait have all but stopped.

Risk trackers have the Hormuz pressure gauge in its most extreme band in months, with Brent trading above $105 as the risk premium rebuilds.

So what: every day the strait stays this tight is another day the diesel bill doesn't get cheaper heading into fall fieldwork.

Watch: whether tanker traffic starts moving again this week, or whether the standoff escalates further.

Mild mid-October weather across the eastern half of the country is keeping both heating and cooling demand light, letting the market drift lower even with crude ripping higher next door.

The usual tight link between natural gas and crude snapped today, a divergence worth flagging rather than a trend.

So what: another quiet week on gas is a small mercy for anyone budgeting nitrogen fertilizer ahead of spring.

Watch: this week's storage report and whether the mild stretch holds into late October.

The U.S. dollar index firmed about a third of a percent today, and that alone explains most of the pullback after gold's push through $4,200 last week.

Call it profit-taking more than a trend change: nothing in the Fed outlook shifted today.

So what: a quieter day for anyone using gold as an inflation hedge, not a reason to rethink the position.

Watch: any Fed commentary this week that could move the December rate-cut odds.

Rode gold's dollar-driven dip lower, with its usual bigger swing on both sides of the move.

The gold-silver ratio ticked up slightly as silver gave back a touch more than gold.

So what: silver's double exposure (safe-haven plus industrial) cuts the same way on a quiet pullback day as it does on a rally.

Watch: whether the ratio keeps drifting or snaps back if gold leads the next leg.

Meal carried the crush (the margin a processor earns turning beans into meal and oil) again today, outpacing both beans and oil.

Protein-feed demand from feedlots keeps showing up as the steadier leg of the soy complex.

So what: cattle and hog rations tick a little pricier this week even as the bean price itself slipped.

Watch: whether the crush spread keeps widening into the back half of the week.

Rode crude's bigger jump higher; the usual tight leash between the two on a day of energy makes the headlines.

Biofuel demand stayed the quiet floor under the move even as beans themselves gave a little ground.

So what: renewable-diesel economics get a touch friendlier when crude firms like this.

Watch: whether oil keeps pace if the Hormuz premium builds further this week.

Export demand stayed the steadying hand here, with sales pace continuing at a healthy clip to start the new marketing year.

A modest bounce after last week's WASDE-driven selloff, with the market finding some footing.

So what: a firmer tone gives a little more room to be patient on the last of the old-crop bushels.

Watch: Thursday's export sales number for whether the pace holds.

Gave back a little ground as harvest pressure built through the session, even as meal and oil both firmed.

The classic crush-spread story: the beans lag while the products they get turned into lead.

So what: the cash price at the elevator cares more about today's basis than the small headline dip.

Watch: any fresh China purchase news, still the single biggest swing factor for this market.

A quiet, mostly technical session with no fresh fundamental news, consolidating after last week's WASDE-driven slide.

Black Sea supply flows stayed the steady backdrop rather than the day's story.

So what: not enough movement here to change anything at the bin or the basis table today.

Watch: Thursday's export sales number for a read on demand.

The laggard of the three wheat boards today, with Southern Plains dryness still the background concern for winter wheat establishment.

The HRW–SRW spread (the price gap between Kansas City and Chicago wheat) narrowed as Kansas City underperformed while Chicago firmed.

So what: protein premiums hold for now, but persistent dryness is worth tracking into planting.

Watch: any moisture in the Southern Plains forecast over the next two weeks.

Thin volume again, drifting a touch higher with the rest of the complex rather than trading on its own news.

The spring-wheat premium over Chicago held steady through the move.

So what: thin liquidity means today's small gain carries less weight than it looks.

Watch: Canadian Prairie spring wheat movement as farmers finish marketing the old crop.

The thinnest market on the board posted the biggest percentage move of the day on barely 600 contracts.

Low liquidity means the swing is more noise than signal, as usual for this contract.

So what: the Prairie-to-Chicago cash gap is worth a glance if this holds into next week, but don't read too much into one thin session.

Watch: whether volume picks up to confirm the move.

ICE Futures Canada was closed today for Thanksgiving, so the board is still carrying Friday's settle, up 0.80 on the session before the long weekend.

It shrugged off that day's U.S. grain selloff by tracking crude and firm soy oil instead.

So what: elevator bids should hold roughly in Friday's range until Tuesday's session gives a fresh print.

Watch: whether canola catches up to today's crude rally once trading resumes.

Feedlot demand has stayed steady, with barley still fighting corn imports and DDGs for space in the ration.

So what: no change to the feeding math this week.

Watch: for a fresh delivered print once the holiday clears and the cash market catches up.

Biggest mover: WTI crude, up 2.06% to $93.74 as Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks revived the geopolitical risk premium.

Cross-market driver: A firmer U.S. dollar pulled gold and silver lower even as the same Hormuz risk lifted crude and, by extension, soybean oil.

Watch tomorrow: whether Hormuz tanker traffic starts moving again or the standoff deepens, and whether Tuesday's reopened Canadian session confirms or shrugs off today's energy move in canola.