Crude Jumps 2.8% as US, Iran Trade Strikes at Hormuz: The Daily Board, Aug 31

Corn mostly sat out today's volatility, ticking up a quarter-cent after closing above $5 for the first time in three years last week.

Strong ethanol grind and a tightening old-crop supply picture are still the underlying bid, even as the market digests last week's move.

So what: a corn board holding near multi-year highs keeps replacement costs elevated for anyone still buying feed month to month.

Watch: whether the corn/bean acreage fight resurfaces once South American planting intentions firm up.

Beans held dead flat after China confirmed another 333,000-tonne new-crop purchase last week, part of a string of large sales that's pushed the board to its highest levels since December 2023.

Extreme heat and heavy rain across major Chinese growing regions are also raising import-reliance chatter, which is quietly supportive.

So what: steady Chinese demand is the floor under new-crop bean bids right now, for better or worse.

Watch: whether China keeps buying at this pace once the initial purchase wave runs its course.

Meal gave back some ground even as the broader soy complex stayed firm, with the crush spread shifting slightly toward oil today.

USDA's August numbers put the US crush forecast at a record 2.78 billion bushels, and meal use (exports plus domestic) has been running ahead of production for much of the marketing year.

So what: record crush volumes are keeping the barn well supplied, but tight meal-use margins mean processors have little room to ease up.

Watch: whether livestock feed demand keeps pace with the bigger crush numbers into fall placements.

Oil barely budged even as crude jumped nearly 3%, a rare bit of decoupling that suggests the board has already priced in EPA's record 2026-27 renewable fuel mandate.

That mandate calls for roughly a 60% jump in biodiesel and renewable diesel output versus 2025, which has been the story underpinning oil's leash to biofuel policy all summer.

So what: oil's flat session despite a crude spike is a reminder biofuel policy, not just energy prices, is setting the tone here.

Watch: any EPA guidance updates on the RIN generation factor changes set to phase in for 2027.