Wheat Slumps on All Three Boards, Crude Drops 3.7% — The Daily Board, June 26

🔴 Corn · Jul — 412'6, −2'0 (−0.48%)

🔴 Beans · Jul — 1126'2, −1'2 (−0.11%)

🔴 Meal · Jul — 307.0, −1.2 (−0.39%)

🟢 Oil · Jul — 71.30, +0.49 (+0.69%)

🔴 SRW · Jul — 578'2, −12'6 (−2.16%)

🔴 HRW · Jul — 611'0, −9'4 (−1.53%)

🔴 HRS · Jul — 575½, −11¾ (−2.00%)

🟢 Oats · Jul — 276'6, +3'0 (+1.10%)

➖ Canola · Jul — C$734.10, +0.10 (+0.01%)

➖ Barley · cash † — ≈C$310, ~steady

🔴 WTI · Aug — $69.23, −2.69 (−3.74%)

🔴 NatGas · Jul — $3.231, −0.112 (−3.35%)

🟢 Gold · Jun — 4,078.7, +48.2 (+1.20%)

🟢 Silver · Jun — 59.19, +0.842 (+1.44%)

Drifted lower in quiet trade, more a follower than a leader as wheat and crude set the bearish tone.

Non-threatening Midwest weather and a comfortable crop keep the funds in no rush to cover.

So what: A soft, range-bound board trims new-crop cash value modestly, but the crude slide alongside it quietly trims your diesel and drying bill into harvest.

Watch: Weekly Crop Progress and the next 10-day forecast — corn needs a weather scare to find a bid.

Essentially unchanged — beans held their ground while wheat got hit, with soybean oil again doing the supportive work.

No fresh Chinese demand headline, but no fresh bearish surprise either; the contract is parked just over 1126.

So what: Beans holding near a three-week high keep a firm tone under your bean basis even on a red day for the complex.

Watch: Any flash export sale to China — still the whole ballgame for beans.

Slipped back below the 308 area as the crush product split again leaned toward oil over protein.

Steady, unremarkable feed demand offered no rescue.

So what: Cheap meal stays a gift to feeders and hog finishers; for the crusher, oil is carrying the margin, not meal.

Watch: The meal/oil spread — meal needs a protein-demand spark to claw back share.

The lone green light in the oilseed row, ticking higher even as crude got hammered — the biofuel-feedstock story is doing its own thing again.

Renewable diesel demand and firm RINs keep buyers paying up for feedstock, regardless of the energy tape.

So what: Oil-share strength is propping up the whole bean complex and, by extension, your canola and bean basis.

Watch: Any 45Z clean-fuel credit guidance from Treasury — the swing factor for the oil bid.

The biggest grain loser on the board: the spec benchmark broke hard, losing the 580s as global supply optimism rolled in.

US winter harvest is advancing, and Russia/Ukraine crop conditions look favourable, giving the heavily short funds every reason to lean.

So what: Sub-580 Chicago wheat keeps US offers competitive on the world stage, but keeps your cash bids uninspiring.

Watch: Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure — peak supply is rolling in right now.

The hard-red board fell with the complex but lost a touch less than Chicago, narrowing the give-back in the KC discount.

Southern Plains harvest is moving and drought worries are being offset by the broader global supply picture.

So what: The HRW–SRW spread is the tell on quality demand — today, HRW outperformed SRW slightly, even as both bled.

Watch: Export sales pace; HRW needs the world to shop in the Gulf to find a floor.

The Minnie slid right alongside its siblings on paper-thin volume (under 2,000 lots) — spring wheat rarely fights the complex on a flush day.

Prairie and Northern Plains spring crop conditions are broadly favorable, capping the high-protein premium.

So what: A softer Minneapolis board pressures the protein spread Canadian spring-wheat growers lean on.

Watch: Spring-wheat condition ratings — the premium lives and dies on crop stress.

Bucked the grain gloom with a small green tick, which in oats usually means a couple of contracts changed hands — just 319 lots traded.

No fresh fundamentals, just the thin market shrugging off the wheat selloff.

So what: Don't read much into the headline pop; oats move on air pockets, not on news.

Watch: Prairie new-crop conditions and the Chicago/cash gap.

Dead flat — canola held its ground as soybean oil's firmness offset the broader grain weakness.

A steady veg-oil complex plus reliable domestic crush demand kept the ICE board pinned.

So what: A flat board protects the value of in-the-bin canola on a day the wheat side gave up ground.

Watch: Prairie growing-season weather and the loonie — both can swing the ICE board fast.

Old-crop delivered Lethbridge is holding around C$6.75/bu (~C$310/t); new-crop fall bids sit lower near C$6.10.

Feedlot demand is steady, and the barley/corn import-substitution math still favours hanging onto bushels for now.

So what: Firm nearby cash rewards growers with bin space, but the new-crop discount flags where the market sees fall supply.

Watch: This is a weekly cash series — next provincial update and US DDG/corn import economics into Alberta lots.

The day's macro driver in reverse: crude gave back yesterday's bounce and slid back under $70, on track for a third straight weekly drop.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is ramping despite a vessel being struck off Oman — the market read returning supply over lingering geopolitical risk.

So what: The read-through that matters most on the farm — falling crude means cheaper diesel and drying fuel into your busy season.

Watch: Whether Hormuz traffic holds and next week's EIA inventory report — a build would press crude further.

Gave back most of yesterday's near-4% surge, sliding back to the low 3.20s as the weather-demand bid faded.

Storage stays comfortable, so the recent pop was weather-rationed, not supply-driven.

So what: Nat gas is the feedstock behind nitrogen fertilizer — a tame gas tape keeps a lid on next season's urea and anhydrous costs.

Watch: Next EIA storage report and the cooling-degree-day outlook.

Reclaimed the $4,080 area as a softer US dollar and easing Treasury yields put the haven bid back to work.

With crude and the war premium deflating, gold leaned on the rates story rather than fear flows today.

So what: For ag balance sheets, firmer gold alongside cheaper crude is a mixed inflation signal — friendlier on energy costs, a reminder rate-cut bets are alive.

Watch: The dollar and Fed-speak — gold's next move keys off real yields. (Quoted off the thin June contract; confirmed against ~$4,082 spot.)

Rode gold higher and a touch harder, pushing back toward $59.20 on the same softer-dollar tailwind.

The industrial-demand kicker that powers silver's run added a little extra lift on the up day.

So what: Silver's slightly deeper gain nudged the gold-silver ratio tighter — worth a glance for the metals crowd.

Watch: COMEX inventories and the ratio; silver tends to overshoot gold in both directions. (Thin June contract; confirmed against ~$59.04 spot.)

Biggest mover: WTI crude, −3.7% back under $70, giving up yesterday's bounce as Strait of Hormuz shipping ramps — the deflating war premium dragged natural gas (−3.4%) down with it.

The cross-market split: All three wheat boards broke ~1.5–2% on improving global supply, while the metals detached and climbed — gold back over $4,080, silver near $59.20 — on a softer dollar and easing yields.

Watch tomorrow: EIA inventories next week, Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest pressure, and tonight's USDA Crop Progress — energy and global wheat supply are steering the board right now.