The Daily Board — September 25, 2026

Crude and natural gas led the board lower today as Iran-Hormuz ceasefire talks unwound some of this year's risk premium.

Grains mostly eased on thin export demand, and metals bucked the risk-off mood.

Gold and silver both firmer even as oil fell, after a Houthi missile strike on Saudi oil infrastructure kept a fresh bid under safe havens.

The Board

Grains & Oilseeds

🌽 Corn · Dec — 528'2 · +0'6 · +0.14% 🟢⬆️

🫘 Beans · Nov — 1319'0 · +1'4 · +0.11% 🟢⬆️

🐮 Meal · Dec — 371.00 · −1.40 · −0.38% 🔴⬇️

🫒 Oil · Dec — 67.84 · +0.29 · +0.43% 🟢⬆️

🌾 SRW · Dec — 703'2 · −3'6 · −0.53% 🔴⬇️

🌾 HRW · Dec — 762'0 · −5'0 · −0.65% 🔴⬇️

🌾 HRS · Dec — 713'4 · −6'6 · −0.94% 🔴⬇️

🥣 Oats · Dec — 420'2 · −2'2 · −0.53% 🔴⬇️

Prairie Crops

🌻 Canola · Nov — C$828.60 · +0.00 · 0.00% ➖

🍺 Barley · Cash — C$295/t · ~flat · ➖

Energy

🛢️ WTI · Nov — 92.41 · −2.20 · −2.33% 🔴⬇️

🔥 NatGas · Nov — 3.225 · −0.145 · −4.30% 🔴⬇️

Metals

🥇 Gold · Dec — 4,321.20 · +23.20 · +0.54% 🟢⬆️

🥈 Silver · Dec — 64.80 · +0.80 · +1.25% 🟢⬆️

(Grains, oats, and wheat quoted in US¢/bu using eighths — e.g., "−3'6" = down 3 and 6/8¢. Meal is $/short ton, oil is ¢/lb. Canola and barley are C$/tonne. WTI is $/bbl, natural gas $/MMBtu, gold and silver $/troy oz.)

The Read

🌽 Corn — 528'2, +0'6 (+0.14%) 🟢⬆️ $CORN ( ▲ 0.25% )

  • Basically parked again, just on the other side of flat from Thursday. Harvest-season selling pressure and soft export sales capped any real move higher.

  • Wet Midwest conditions are slowing combines in spots, which is providing a little underlying support even as the bigger story stays bearish supply.

  • So what: flat is fine for the bin — no urgency to price bushels off this print, but no reason to chase it either.

  • Watch: the pace of U.S. harvest completion and any pickup in export inspections.

🫘 Soybeans — 1319'0, +1'4 (+0.11%) 🟢⬆️ $SOYB ( ▼ 0.72% )

  • Another near-dead-flat session. China remains on pace for its 25-million-tonne purchase commitment, which kept beans from following wheat lower.

  • The U.S.–China summit produced no fresh agricultural purchase headlines, so the market's leaning on the existing pace rather than any new catalyst.

  • So what: China demand remains the whole ballgame here; as long as the pace holds, beans have a floor.

  • Watch: next week's export sales report for confirmation that China's still buying at the same clip.

🐮 Soybean Meal — 371.00, −1.40 (−0.38%) 🔴⬇️

  • Oil carried the crush (the margin a processor earns turning beans into meal and oil) today while meal lagged — the mirror image of Thursday's product split.

  • Livestock and protein-feed demand stayed steady; nothing here points to a change in the underlying feed picture.

  • So what: feed costs ease marginally for cattle and hog operations running heavy meal rations — a small breather, not a trend.

  • Watch: the next NOPA crush report for a read on whether the margin story holds into October.

🫒 Soybean Oil — 67.84, +0.29 (+0.43%) 🟢⬆️

  • Oil reconnected with a firmer vegetable-oil complex today after pulling against meal on Thursday.

  • Biofuel demand and palm-oil competition remain the anchors; today's bounce looks more like mean reversion than a fresh catalyst.

  • So what: a firmer oil print with softer meal keeps the overall crush margin healthy either way.

  • Watch: whether oil holds its footing or goes back to decoupling from meal tomorrow.

🌾 SRW Wheat (Chicago) — 703'2, −3'6 (−0.53%) 🔴⬇️ $WEAT ( ▼ 0.27% )

  • The global benchmark eased for a fourth straight weekly decline, with traders citing a lack of any fresh signal pointing to bigger U.S. export demand.

  • Fund positioning stays heavily short here, which keeps rallies capped but also leaves room for short-covering pops on any surprise.

  • So what: basis (the gap between your local cash bid and the futures price) opportunities stay thin while the board grinds lower.

  • Watch: any sign of fresh export demand — that's the only thing traders say can turn this around.

🌾 HRW Wheat (Kansas City) — 762'0, −5'0 (−0.65%) 🔴⬇️

  • KC led the wheat complex lower again, though the HRW–SRW spread held near a 59¢ premium for the hard red — protein demand is still paying up even as the board softens.

  • Southern Plains moisture has stayed adequate, taking urgency out of the market ahead of winter wheat planting.

  • So what: that ~59¢ premium is real money for anyone holding high-protein bushels — know your protein grade before you price.

  • Watch: any shift in Plains moisture forecasts as winter wheat seeding gets underway.

🌾 HRS Wheat (Minneapolis, "the Minnie") — 713'4, −6'6 (−0.94%) 🔴⬇️

  • The Minnie was today's biggest wheat loser for the second day running — thin, lower-liquidity trade tends to exaggerate moves like this in either direction.

  • Spring wheat harvest is wrapping up on the northern Plains and into the Canadian Prairies, with the high-protein premium still intact versus Chicago.

  • So what: if you're holding high-protein spring wheat, that premium over SRW/HRW is still worth locking in before it narrows further.

  • Watch: final spring wheat harvest results and protein readings over the next few weeks.

🥣 Oats — 420'2, −2'2 (−0.53%) 🔴⬇️

  • Oats gave back Thursday's pop in a thin, choppy market — volume here stays light enough that day-to-day swings shouldn't be read as a trend.

  • The Chicago/Prairie cash gap remains the more important number for anyone actually pricing bushels.

  • So what: don't chase the futures print — check your local cash bid before making any decisions.

  • Watch: whether Prairie supply data moves the cash basis independent of the thin futures board.

🌻 Canola — 828.60, +0.00 (0.00%) ➖

  • Dead flat, and notably didn't follow crude and the U.S. soy complex lower — canola's biofuel-linked demand usually tracks oil prices, so today's disconnect is worth flagging.

  • Record-acreage chatter out of the Prairies is capping upside even as crush demand stays a steady tailwind.

  • So what: a flat print here, with crude down over 2%, is quietly a relative-strength signal for canola.

  • Watch: whether canola keeps decoupling from crude tomorrow or catches down to it.

🍺 Alberta Feed Barley — ~C$295/tonne, roughly flat ➖

  • Harvest is progressing across Alberta, and supply should keep loosening as combines roll — the bigger story than any single week's print.

  • So what: feedlots should see barley supply continue to loosen through October — a reasonable window to book coverage.

  • Watch: the next weekly delivered-bid update and whether harvest pace pressures cash bids lower into October.

🛢️ WTI Crude — 92.41, −2.20 (−2.33%) 🔴⬇️

  • Crude fell hard on reports of Qatari-mediated U.S.–Iran talks exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, unwinding some of this year's geopolitical risk premium.

  • An unexpected EIA inventory build (crude stocks up roughly 3 million barrels against expectations for a draw) added to the pressure, alongside chatter about a Q4 supply glut.

  • So what: diesel costs may finally give a little room this fall — but don't bank on a big pullback with Middle East risk still live.

  • Watch: whether the Hormuz talks actually produce a deal, and the next EIA inventory report.

🔥 Natural Gas — 3.225, −0.145 (−4.30%) 🔴⬇️

  • Today's biggest mover on the board, reversing hard from Thursday's +6.9% spike. Forecasts for milder weather and softer demand next week took the wind out of the late-summer heat story.

  • Work progressing on West Virginia pipeline capacity is also easing near-term supply concerns, even as storage stays a bit below last year's pace.

  • So what: this is as much a fertilizer-cost story as a heating one — a sharp reversal here says don't extrapolate any single week's move into your nitrogen budget.

  • Watch: next week's EIA storage report and whether the milder-weather call holds.

🥇 Gold — 4,321.20, +23.20 (+0.54%) 🟢⬆️

  • Gold firmed even as the dollar eased slightly — a Houthi missile strike on Saudi oil infrastructure added fresh Middle East risk that offset the Hormuz de-escalation weighing on crude.

  • Treasury yields near two-decade highs and elevated Fed rate-hike odds are the counterweight keeping gains in check.

  • So what: gold's holding its recent $4,300–$4,400 range — a genuine tug-of-war, not a clean trend in either direction.

  • Watch: any fresh Fed commentary and whether the Hormuz talks or the Houthi story dominates the headlines into the weekend.

🥈 Silver — 64.80, +0.80 (+1.25%) 🟢⬆️

  • Silver outran gold today, as it usually does in both directions — the industrial-demand kicker gave it extra lift on the same safe-haven bid.

  • The gold-silver ratio narrowed a touch on the move, the opposite of Thursday's widening.

  • So what: silver's the higher-beta play on the same story — expect bigger swings than gold in either direction from here.

  • Watch: the gold-silver ratio for a read on whether this is metals-wide strength or silver-specific.

The Bottom Line

  • Biggest mover: natural gas, down 4.3% in a sharp reversal from Thursday's heat-driven spike, on milder weather forecasts and easing demand.

  • Cross-market driver: Iran/Hormuz headlines cut two ways today — ceasefire talk hit crude specifically, while a Houthi strike on Saudi oil infrastructure kept a bid under gold and silver.

  • Top thing to watch tomorrow: the weekend's Iran-Hormuz and Houthi headlines heading into Monday's open, plus any follow-through (or further reversal) in natural gas.

Keep Reading

Track today's movers: WTI Crude, Natural Gas, Wheat

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