The Daily Board — September 25, 2026
Crude and natural gas led the board lower today as Iran-Hormuz ceasefire talks unwound some of this year's risk premium.
Grains mostly eased on thin export demand, and metals bucked the risk-off mood.
Gold and silver both firmer even as oil fell, after a Houthi missile strike on Saudi oil infrastructure kept a fresh bid under safe havens.
The Board
Grains & Oilseeds
🌽 Corn · Dec — 528'2 · +0'6 · +0.14% 🟢⬆️
🫘 Beans · Nov — 1319'0 · +1'4 · +0.11% 🟢⬆️
🐮 Meal · Dec — 371.00 · −1.40 · −0.38% 🔴⬇️
🫒 Oil · Dec — 67.84 · +0.29 · +0.43% 🟢⬆️
🌾 SRW · Dec — 703'2 · −3'6 · −0.53% 🔴⬇️
🌾 HRW · Dec — 762'0 · −5'0 · −0.65% 🔴⬇️
🌾 HRS · Dec — 713'4 · −6'6 · −0.94% 🔴⬇️
🥣 Oats · Dec — 420'2 · −2'2 · −0.53% 🔴⬇️
Prairie Crops
🌻 Canola · Nov — C$828.60 · +0.00 · 0.00% ➖
🍺 Barley · Cash — C$295/t · ~flat · ➖
Energy
🛢️ WTI · Nov — 92.41 · −2.20 · −2.33% 🔴⬇️
🔥 NatGas · Nov — 3.225 · −0.145 · −4.30% 🔴⬇️
Metals
🥇 Gold · Dec — 4,321.20 · +23.20 · +0.54% 🟢⬆️
🥈 Silver · Dec — 64.80 · +0.80 · +1.25% 🟢⬆️
(Grains, oats, and wheat quoted in US¢/bu using eighths — e.g., "−3'6" = down 3 and 6/8¢. Meal is $/short ton, oil is ¢/lb. Canola and barley are C$/tonne. WTI is $/bbl, natural gas $/MMBtu, gold and silver $/troy oz.)
The Read
🌽 Corn — 528'2, +0'6 (+0.14%) 🟢⬆️ $CORN ( ▲ 0.25% )
Basically parked again, just on the other side of flat from Thursday. Harvest-season selling pressure and soft export sales capped any real move higher.
Wet Midwest conditions are slowing combines in spots, which is providing a little underlying support even as the bigger story stays bearish supply.
So what: flat is fine for the bin — no urgency to price bushels off this print, but no reason to chase it either.
Watch: the pace of U.S. harvest completion and any pickup in export inspections.
🫘 Soybeans — 1319'0, +1'4 (+0.11%) 🟢⬆️ $SOYB ( ▼ 0.72% )
Another near-dead-flat session. China remains on pace for its 25-million-tonne purchase commitment, which kept beans from following wheat lower.
The U.S.–China summit produced no fresh agricultural purchase headlines, so the market's leaning on the existing pace rather than any new catalyst.
So what: China demand remains the whole ballgame here; as long as the pace holds, beans have a floor.
Watch: next week's export sales report for confirmation that China's still buying at the same clip.
🐮 Soybean Meal — 371.00, −1.40 (−0.38%) 🔴⬇️
Oil carried the crush (the margin a processor earns turning beans into meal and oil) today while meal lagged — the mirror image of Thursday's product split.
Livestock and protein-feed demand stayed steady; nothing here points to a change in the underlying feed picture.
So what: feed costs ease marginally for cattle and hog operations running heavy meal rations — a small breather, not a trend.
Watch: the next NOPA crush report for a read on whether the margin story holds into October.
🫒 Soybean Oil — 67.84, +0.29 (+0.43%) 🟢⬆️
Oil reconnected with a firmer vegetable-oil complex today after pulling against meal on Thursday.
Biofuel demand and palm-oil competition remain the anchors; today's bounce looks more like mean reversion than a fresh catalyst.
So what: a firmer oil print with softer meal keeps the overall crush margin healthy either way.
Watch: whether oil holds its footing or goes back to decoupling from meal tomorrow.
🌾 SRW Wheat (Chicago) — 703'2, −3'6 (−0.53%) 🔴⬇️ $WEAT ( ▼ 0.27% )
The global benchmark eased for a fourth straight weekly decline, with traders citing a lack of any fresh signal pointing to bigger U.S. export demand.
Fund positioning stays heavily short here, which keeps rallies capped but also leaves room for short-covering pops on any surprise.
So what: basis (the gap between your local cash bid and the futures price) opportunities stay thin while the board grinds lower.
Watch: any sign of fresh export demand — that's the only thing traders say can turn this around.
🌾 HRW Wheat (Kansas City) — 762'0, −5'0 (−0.65%) 🔴⬇️
KC led the wheat complex lower again, though the HRW–SRW spread held near a 59¢ premium for the hard red — protein demand is still paying up even as the board softens.
Southern Plains moisture has stayed adequate, taking urgency out of the market ahead of winter wheat planting.
So what: that ~59¢ premium is real money for anyone holding high-protein bushels — know your protein grade before you price.
Watch: any shift in Plains moisture forecasts as winter wheat seeding gets underway.
🌾 HRS Wheat (Minneapolis, "the Minnie") — 713'4, −6'6 (−0.94%) 🔴⬇️
The Minnie was today's biggest wheat loser for the second day running — thin, lower-liquidity trade tends to exaggerate moves like this in either direction.
Spring wheat harvest is wrapping up on the northern Plains and into the Canadian Prairies, with the high-protein premium still intact versus Chicago.
So what: if you're holding high-protein spring wheat, that premium over SRW/HRW is still worth locking in before it narrows further.
Watch: final spring wheat harvest results and protein readings over the next few weeks.
🥣 Oats — 420'2, −2'2 (−0.53%) 🔴⬇️
Oats gave back Thursday's pop in a thin, choppy market — volume here stays light enough that day-to-day swings shouldn't be read as a trend.
The Chicago/Prairie cash gap remains the more important number for anyone actually pricing bushels.
So what: don't chase the futures print — check your local cash bid before making any decisions.
Watch: whether Prairie supply data moves the cash basis independent of the thin futures board.
🌻 Canola — 828.60, +0.00 (0.00%) ➖
Dead flat, and notably didn't follow crude and the U.S. soy complex lower — canola's biofuel-linked demand usually tracks oil prices, so today's disconnect is worth flagging.
Record-acreage chatter out of the Prairies is capping upside even as crush demand stays a steady tailwind.
So what: a flat print here, with crude down over 2%, is quietly a relative-strength signal for canola.
Watch: whether canola keeps decoupling from crude tomorrow or catches down to it.
🍺 Alberta Feed Barley — ~C$295/tonne, roughly flat ➖
Harvest is progressing across Alberta, and supply should keep loosening as combines roll — the bigger story than any single week's print.
So what: feedlots should see barley supply continue to loosen through October — a reasonable window to book coverage.
Watch: the next weekly delivered-bid update and whether harvest pace pressures cash bids lower into October.
🛢️ WTI Crude — 92.41, −2.20 (−2.33%) 🔴⬇️
Crude fell hard on reports of Qatari-mediated U.S.–Iran talks exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, unwinding some of this year's geopolitical risk premium.
An unexpected EIA inventory build (crude stocks up roughly 3 million barrels against expectations for a draw) added to the pressure, alongside chatter about a Q4 supply glut.
So what: diesel costs may finally give a little room this fall — but don't bank on a big pullback with Middle East risk still live.
Watch: whether the Hormuz talks actually produce a deal, and the next EIA inventory report.
🔥 Natural Gas — 3.225, −0.145 (−4.30%) 🔴⬇️
Today's biggest mover on the board, reversing hard from Thursday's +6.9% spike. Forecasts for milder weather and softer demand next week took the wind out of the late-summer heat story.
Work progressing on West Virginia pipeline capacity is also easing near-term supply concerns, even as storage stays a bit below last year's pace.
So what: this is as much a fertilizer-cost story as a heating one — a sharp reversal here says don't extrapolate any single week's move into your nitrogen budget.
Watch: next week's EIA storage report and whether the milder-weather call holds.
🥇 Gold — 4,321.20, +23.20 (+0.54%) 🟢⬆️
Gold firmed even as the dollar eased slightly — a Houthi missile strike on Saudi oil infrastructure added fresh Middle East risk that offset the Hormuz de-escalation weighing on crude.
Treasury yields near two-decade highs and elevated Fed rate-hike odds are the counterweight keeping gains in check.
So what: gold's holding its recent $4,300–$4,400 range — a genuine tug-of-war, not a clean trend in either direction.
Watch: any fresh Fed commentary and whether the Hormuz talks or the Houthi story dominates the headlines into the weekend.
🥈 Silver — 64.80, +0.80 (+1.25%) 🟢⬆️
Silver outran gold today, as it usually does in both directions — the industrial-demand kicker gave it extra lift on the same safe-haven bid.
The gold-silver ratio narrowed a touch on the move, the opposite of Thursday's widening.
So what: silver's the higher-beta play on the same story — expect bigger swings than gold in either direction from here.
Watch: the gold-silver ratio for a read on whether this is metals-wide strength or silver-specific.
The Bottom Line
Biggest mover: natural gas, down 4.3% in a sharp reversal from Thursday's heat-driven spike, on milder weather forecasts and easing demand.
Cross-market driver: Iran/Hormuz headlines cut two ways today — ceasefire talk hit crude specifically, while a Houthi strike on Saudi oil infrastructure kept a bid under gold and silver.
Top thing to watch tomorrow: the weekend's Iran-Hormuz and Houthi headlines heading into Monday's open, plus any follow-through (or further reversal) in natural gas.
Keep Reading
Track today's movers: WTI Crude, Natural Gas, Wheat

